WoW Roundup: Luck Tested, Player Wealth and more

Exciting times in WoW right now, between the new raids and the upcoming patch! And blog activity’s reflecting that – there’s a lot of good writing out there.

At the same time, it’s not all happy – but whether you want to read scientific (ish) testing of WoW superstitions, or a well-considered essay on why one veteran player’s quitting the game, it’s all here:

  • We don’t usually link to “I’m quitting WoW” posts, but Kurn’s epic discussion and analysis of the game and her relation with it is fascinating reading – FAR from the usual “I quit” post (earlier parts here“I didn’t just become a raider. I became a raid leader. I became a healing lead. I became a guild master. I became a WoW blogger. I became a WoW podcaster. World of Warcraft has been a great place for me to hang out for seven years. “
  • Saxsy writes a very useful guide for any AH player to the uses or lack therof of MoP gems“A lot of gems here reflect the primacy of hit and spirit. Like the blue ones above, I expect these to become less popular as gear gets better and these stats become less useful. For now, though, these gems actually sell pretty well, which is a refreshing change from Cataclysm, where the best price you could get for a green gem was from the vendor.”
  • The Grumpy Elf wanted more luck – so he tested out some of the methods that other players swear make WoW’s RNG kinder“So many people relay stories exactly like this, so is it possible that there is something to it? It seems to work the same with BoP patterns in raids. If a blacksmith BoP pattern drops from the raid and there are no blacksmiths in the raid expect to see a lot of them. If there are a few, expect to see none.”
  • The Godmother writes a really great post about the impact when your play isn’t up to scratch, and how we – and she – copes with it“There is a very good reason why L2P can be as abusive a phrase as it is. If you can, then it is likely you will never understands the issues that arise if you can’t. Knowing you can’t, and admitting that fact is often very difficult.”
  • Beruthiel channels Dr Seuss for a parable about the current state of the healing druid“The Lorax said, “Sir! You are crazy, my friend. There is no one on earth who will use them in the end!”. The crab laughed at the Lorax, “You poor stupid guy! You will use them, and like it, or just manage to get by”.”
  • And Eric Dekker reveals the results of his 2012 Warcraft Wealth survey in a long, fascinating post“Given the results of this year’s survey the calculate Gini Index, the measurement of inequality where 0% is perfect equality and 100% is perfect inequality, for the World of Warcraft population is 75.9, a raise of 10.4 points over 2011’s results. To give some scale to the disparity if Azeroth was a country it would have the most inequality in the world, doing even worse than Namibia which has a 74.3. “

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Resumes, Bots and The Diablo Legacy – Thursday Links

It’s obvious that the WoW world is starting to hot up again, with 5.0 headed to the PTR, as we’re seeing a lot more comment, consideration and, yes, complaint about Blizzard’s giant MMO in the blogosphere these days compared with even a month ago. But other games are still hanging in there too – today we’ve got a fascinating look into the world of EVE botters, as well as a dissection of Diablo 3 compared to its predecessor:

  • Frinka at Warcraft Street asks whether sucessful AH players in WoW could use that skill on their real-world resumes“If you are persistent and participate in many conversations with “random people” over a long period you will likely learn how to steer a nibble PST conversation into a sale. “
  • The Nosy Gamer brings us a report from the shadow world of EVE botters, as he quotes botting forums to show that CCP are successfully keeping cheaters quite unhappy“maybe what i writing not will be popular, but … MINING AT BOT ISIN’T SAFE ANYMORE !!! that was , 2 – 6 years ago, right now – after that many years CCP got toys to catching botters”
  • Clockwork at Out Of Beta asks if Diablo 3 really stands up as a worthy successor to the “Diablo” title“D2’s dungeons were random halls that no reasonable architect would have ever designed and yet they FELT right. Each one was different, each was unique…aside from boss rooms, you almost never had the same place twice. “

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Popular Cataclysm Enchants – and how they can make you lazy and rich

If you’re an enchanter, you may well have dipped your toe into the waters of selling enchants on the AH. It’s entirely possible that your toe subsequently got nipped by the Pirahnas of This Is Way More Complicated Than It Looks, too.

Fear not! There are rather easier ways to aquire cash in profusion using your enchanting. So, pick up your Runed Elementium Rod from where you threw it at the ground in despair, and let’s get to the money-making.

The principle

There are basically two approaches to selling enchants on the Auction House. The first is to sell everything you can, often using an addon like Trade Skill Master. By listing literally every enchant you can, you’ll sell the maximum number, but the cost in time and effort is high. Nonetheless, if you’re going for gold cap, this is the way to go.

However, if you’re a fair bit lazier, there’s an easier way. Rather than blanketing the AH with everything, simply target a few popular enchants, and keep them rolling out to keep the money rolling in. This is an application of the well-known “8020” rule – 80% of your profits on Enchanting will come from 20% of the items you list. You just need to know which ones.

This is absolutely not the best way to make maximum cash in WoW, by the way. If you regard the AH as a substantial part of the enjoyment of the game, or if you urgently need to make as much gold as possible, you’ll want to use the thorough route. However, it’s easily possible to make 100k or so using a less-thorough technique, and rather than spending an hour a day at it, you’ll spend 5 minutes.

The Enchants

So what are you looking for?

In short, we want enchants that do three things:

  • Sell regularly. This is vital. At the end of the day, what you’re almost certainly interested in is how much gold you make per week. An enchant that sells for 2k but only sells once a month will make you less money than one which sells for 99g, every day.
  • Have a high profit margin. Again, the amount an enchant sells for is not the important bit – what’s important is how much profit you make. It’s very easy to forget to track the cost of the materials, and end up busily selling something for 700g, then paying 750g for the materials to make another. (I have done this!)
  • Aren’t too competitive. Most of the really high-end enchants – Landslide, Windwalk, etc – are actually a bad bet to sell. They have very high prices, and so attract a lot of competition – and as a casual seller, you don’t want to be fighting intense competition.

Now, exactly which enchants fit those criteria will vary from server to server. YMMV, and it’s always worth researching through the Undermine Journal and selling on the AH yourself. However, all things being equal, we’d recommend starting with the following:

  • Enchant Bracer: SpeedNOT Greater Speed. Sells for 40-ish gold on many servers, for 2 Hypnotic Dust and one Lesser Celestial Essence.
  • Enchant Boots: Earthen Vitality – for only 2 Hypnotic Dust, this must-have enchant can sell very, very well. On many servers the price has crashed, but on some you can sell it for 30g or more.
  • Enchant Gloves: Greater Mastery – A go-to enchant for many classes, it’s fairly expensive to produce (2 Maelstrom Crystal, 12 Hypnotic Dust, 5 Greater Celestial), but sells for upward of 500g, and fast.
  • Enchant Cloak: Greater Intellect – Another must-have for all cloth classes, essentially. Not a “high-glamour” enchant, but with a good profit margin in many places – 350g or more for 9 Hypnotic Dust and 4 Greater Celestials.

Good luck!

Know any other must-have enchants to sell? Let us know below!

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Editorial: Was the Firelands recipe grind worth it?

Warning: Contains Math.

Updated with live figures from our server – see below.

One of my big things in WoW at the moment is the Auction House – having started about 2 months ago from the premise of “I wonder if it’s possible to make serious AH gold from professions that most people think of as money-losers?”, I’ve been tracking it pretty hard. And like most serious AH players, I’ve been hacking through the Firelands dailies as a furious rate, trying to get the Blacksmithing professions first, so I can make phat bank, as I understand the kids say it today.

Now we’re in the final day or so of the grind – I’m already hearing reports of the recipes being available to some players. And so the question becomes – was it worth it?

Doing the Math

Let’s have a look at the crafting recipes from the Firelands. They’re all roughly the same in mats usage, so I’ll just pick the two-handed sword as an example, the Masterwork Elementium Deathblade.

I’d expect this weapon to sell for about 20-30k when it first appears on the AH. Mats are 8 Truegold, 2 Ocean Sapphire, 4 Hardened Elementium Bars, and 5 Chaos Orbs.

Not too shabby, eh? We’re in the money!

Not so fast.

First up. Truegold. Truegold’s going to spike when these recipes become available, and tailor off roughly in proportion to the demand, most likely. On my server, it’s already been seeing highs of 800g, so I’d be expecting a price during the first rush of – let’s be conservative – 1200g. So, for 8 of them, that’s 9600g.

The other mats aside from Chaos Orbs are trivial. 400g for the lot. So, mats cost 10k, potential sale price 30k, that’s 20k profit. Win!

Except for those pesky Chaos Orbs. Now, you’ll probably have some of these already – but on the other hand, you’ll probably be wanting to craft one of these recipes for your main or an alt. So, how much does a Chaos Orb cost?

In most dungeon runs, you’ll have between 2 and 4 people rolling on them, in my experience. Thanks to the VP kerfuffle, we have pretty good numbers on how long a standard dungeon run – the most efficient way to get a chaos orb – takes. It’s about 50 minutes. So, to get enough Chaos Orbs to make one of these weapons, on average, you’re looking at 3(average number of rollers) x 50(minutes) x5 (Orbs) = 12 hours, 30 min of dungeons for a single weapon craft (not counting queue time).

(This is optimistic, by the way. I’ve been seeing more rolls on them recently thanks to the dailies – often 4 people, sometimes even 5.)

Wow.

That ISN’T going to go down, either. So how much money could you make in that time?

A quick Google and my own experience suggests that a dedicated and skilled farmer working intelligently can probably make 1500g per hour. You’ve got to be fairly heavily optimised doing that, but if you’re planning to be a serious epic weapon seller, you’re going to be in that camp. So your 12 hr 30 minute opportunity cost is 18,750g.

Total cost for getting the mats for your first weapon, right out of the gate – 28,750g. Expected sale price – 30k. Auction House cut: 5% or 1500g. Net profit: -250g.

And after the rush dies down? Well, let’s assume that Truegold drops back to its 500g price, where it has been stable for months. At that point your mats cost is 23k approximately. Expected sale price? 20k. Oh, dear. -3000g profit.

But it’s not as bleak as all that. The chances are that you’re doing dungeon runs anyway, and with the new recipes out, your Chaos Orbs would otherwise just sit in your bank. So is it an efficient way of making money if you’re already going to be doing the dungeons?

Hardcore VP-Cappers – WIN. Other people – Not So Win

Of course, that’s assuming you’re not getting Chaos Orbs anyway. Let’s assume the best possible case here and assume you’re a hardcore, Valor Point-capping raider. That means you’re running 7 Troll Heroics a week, and possibly also means that you involuntarily stab yourself in the hand every time you see a boss shaped like an animal. But it also means you’re going to be getting Chaos Orbs just as a biproduct of doing that.

How many? Approximately enough to make a weapon every 2 weeks, for roughly 14k profit assuming you consider the Orbs to be free.

Sweet!

Erm. Except that we haven’t considered the opportunity cost of spamming through to GET the original recipes yet. Most people estimate 45 minutes per day to do the dailies, and it rises after the 11th day, probably to about 1 hour for the sake of simplicity. So, in order to go through the 25-day process to get the recipes, you’ve spent 11×45 +14 x1 hours = 22 hours approximately. (This is a VERY optimistic estimate, and doesn’t include learning time, time to do the quests you only do once, time to complete Hyjal if you haven’t done that yet…)

At our figure above, then, the opportunity cost of getting the recipes was 33k at best.

So, in the end, how much are your recipes worth? Well, if you’re doing at least 7 Heroics a week, every week, after 12 weeks you’ll have made 51k, or 600g a day – not bad, but not a great return. It’s about twice what I make off Ebonsteel Belt Buckles on their own – for 5 min work a day.

And if you’re not a hardcore VP-capper, it’s even worse. 3 Heroics a week? Then you can make one weapon every 5 weeks, meaning after 12 weeks you’ll have made 7.2k.

But what else could you do with the Orbs?

Of course, that means that you could, essentially, be looking at a steady income from Chaos Orbs, which is nice. But the problem is that at some point, the market’s going to change.

Pretty much everyone’s expecting Chaos Orbs to become BoE. Even if they don’t, with the next raid patch the iLevel will go up again, and in all likelihod there’ll be another recipe grind.

So what’s going to happen then?

Well, for starters, if they do become BoE, you could then sell all the Orbs you’ve aquired even if you didn’t do the recipe run. Everyone will be unloading at once, so there’ll probably be a glut, but nonetheless you’ll be able to make 500g or so for each orb.

At the same time, the new recipes are likely to make the older ones, compared to their mats cost (including newly-tradable Orbs, if that happens) significantly less valuable. It wouldn’t be unfair to assume that the utility value of the recipes essentially stops at the next patch.

And whilst we’re examining all this, it’s worth remembering that you can still make the old 359 Chaos Orb items now, even if you don’t have the new recipes. They don’t sell and won’t sell for nearly as much as the new items, but still, making something like Elementium Deathplate or Assassin’s Chestguard will net you a grand total of about 4-5k, meaning approximately 1-2k profit, again working out at, very roughly, 500g per orb. That means that your increased profit for selling the new stuff is effectively reduced by 500g per Orb from the totals above, because you could have simply skipped the Firelands recipes and sold the old items instead.

So, grand and final total maximum profit from grinding for these recipes, over simply farming the same amount of time?

For a 7-Heroics-per-week raider: 110k total over the 6-month lifespan of the recipes, or 600g per day.

For a 3-Heroics-per-week more casual player: **22k total over the 6-month lifespan of the recipes, or 120g per day.

**

Overall, if you’re a VP-capper, grinding for the recipes was probably significantly less profitable in the long term than levelling a new toon to 75 and getting them two professions maxed, unless you already have all professions covered. If you’re not capping your VP, it was probably a LOT less profitable.

Of course, all of this could be wrong. Demand for the weapons could be much higher than I expect, and they could sell for 50k for months. Equally, they could sink like a stone now that everyone’s PUGing raids for 359s. But my best guess is the above.

So what to do now?

If you’ve already ground out these recipes, all is not lost.

The most important limiting factor in all this work is the rate at which you can aquire Chaos Orbs. If you can somehow arrange it so that you get a Chaos Orb every single run, the recipes become a massive money-maker. At 7 Orbs a week, if everything else stays the same, you’re going to make 370k profit from having these recipes rather than anything else over 6 months.

That means that it’s worth using almost any means necessary to get those Orbs. Offer to boost people in exchange for the Orb. Organise runs with guildies you know don’t use Orbs. Pay people off not to roll.

If you can optimise your Orbs, you win.

And what should we watch out for next time?

The Firelands recipes looked like obvious winners for gold-making, which is why so many of us have been grinding hard to get them. But in actual fact, it turns out that they’re less a gift and more a treadmill for comparatively little reward, unless you’re already doing some other very grindy activities.

If the next patch contains more tempting recipes, it’s worth looking very closely at the amount of effort needed to obtain them. Do they require materials that can’t be easily obtained (Living Embers, I call you to the stand) or are only obtainable through farming (Orbs)? What else could you be doing with the time investment needed to get them, and would it be more profitable, more flexible, and/or more fun? I know I would have had more fun levelling a DK at my own pace than HAVING to do the dailies every day to get the recipes as soon as possible.

In this case, if Blizzard puts a sparkly pony on a string in front of you as an AH player, it’s definitely worth counting its teeth.

– UPDATE as figures come in –

Numbers are coming in on our server at least. Currently the weapons are going for 10k-15k, less than HALF what I predicted below. Truegold hasn’t spiked as predicted, although I would expect that to happen at the weekend.

This significantly changes my summary to a very simple “It’s basically not worth it no matter what you do and how you’re getting the orbs”. Even if you’re a hardcore raider, to make the time you spent back will take more than 3 months (@10k price – 5k mats every two weeks).

Please comment with the numbers you’re seeing on your server – I’ll be interested to see if this value estimation FAIL is happening across the board.

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Blacksen predicts higher AH prices in 4.01

Blacksen’s got a very intelligent article up today on his expectations of the patch’s effects on AH prices, and specifically the effects of the changes to mods like QuickAuctions. As of 4.01, posting auctions can no longer be done automatically – instead, each AH interaction will require a hardware event.

It might seem like this levels the playing field on the AH and is generally good for everyone, but Blacksen’s of the opinion that, by reducing competition on the AH, it will cause global price increases – and make it more difficult to play the AH at the same time.

Personally, I’m ecstatic about the changes. I’ve been talking with the other auctioneers on Zul’jin, and they’re all equally happy. Isn’t this the first sign that Blizzard is making a huge mistake? We’re not going to have to compete with average Joe anymore simply because he won’t have the skills and time to actually participate in the market. In fact, average Joe is probably going to lose money to us when trying to enter. Price is expected to go up, and with that, total revenue is probably going to go up as well. The 10% margins on gems and 1% margins on enchanting materials will all disintegrate. The consumer is probably going to suffer, and ironically, Blizzard thinks they’re helping them.

Is he right? I fear he may well be. Certainly, there are ways to automate AH-playing, perfectly legitimately, still – they’re just harder work to set up, and that’s going to create more of a distance between the established auctioneers with the knowledge, skill and hardware to do that, and those who don’t. And economically it’s very hard to argue against his analysis that prices will rise again – although that might mean it’s actually possible to make money on enchanting mats occasionally.

Overall, this seems to be in line with Blizzard’s ongoing very heavy-handed interventionist attitude to addons. Is it a good idea or a bad idea? What do you think the effects on the economy of 4.01’s changes will be?

Quote taken from http://blacksen.com/archives/687.

Find Blacksen’s homepage at http://blacksen.com/

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